Those of you who read my posts on social media know that I'm a big fan of Bernie Sanders and I'd love for him to be president. However, as I'll make clear below, he has no realistic chance to win the Democratic nomination, and the time has come for all of Bernie Sanders supporters to start focusing on keeping the GOP out of the White House in November. If you believe passionately in Bernie's vision for America, you've got to come to grips with the fact that President Hillary Clinton would keep the USA far closer to that vision than President Trump, President Cruz, or any Republican president. Keep in mind that I'm not claiming Hillary would definitely bring us closer to Bernie's vision. It's certainly possible that she might bring us a tiny bit closer to that vision, but if she follows the Clinton family playbook of changing positions based on the polls ( All liberals still wince when they think of Bill's "The era of big government is over" moment ) it's possible that she'll move the country a little bit to the right. However, President Hillary Clinton moving the country a little bit to the right would be a lot better than a Republican president moving the country thousands of miles to the right. Hillary may be a "lesser evil" in a presidential race against a Republican nominee, but she's a MUCH MUCH lesser evil than a Republican president.
Now, I'm sure some of you Bernie fans are about to stop reading this and dismiss what I'm saying based on the belief that I'm a secret Hillary supporter. Well, if you are somebody who feels this way, the first thing I'd like to emphasize is that if a message is true, the messenger shouldn't matter. However, if you require proof that I'm not a Hillary supporter, I can provide plenty of proof.
Just last month, I wrote a blog post expressing my belief that Hillary is not an ideal candidate. A year ago, I wrote a blog post blasting Hillary for her email scandal. I'm also not a new passenger on the anti-Hillary train. I made the anti-Hillary video below back on January 31, 2008.
I'll also note that I've been writing blog posts about income inequality long before some of you folks jumped on the Bernie bandwagon.
Some of you Bernie fans also might dismiss this post because you believe Bernie still has a chance to win the Democratic nomination. While I wish I could believe that, I live in the world of reality, logic, and math.
Bernie fans on social media keep posting charts indicating that Hillary has only 1139 delegates and needs 2383 to win the nomination. However, that's deceptive because that "2383" includes superdelegates while 1139 is the number of pledged ( non-super ) delegates that Hillary has won so far. Hillary's real target is 2026 pledged delegates. There are 4051 pledged delegates at stake in the Democratic presidential nomination race. If Hillary wins the majority of those pledged delegates ( 2026 or more ), she's going to win the nomination. Baring some unforeseen shocking Hillary scandal ( something more shocking than the email stuff ), there is no scenario in which the majority of superdelegates support Bernie if Hillary has won the majority of pledged delegates. Bernie can't win the nomination unless he wins at least 2026 pledged delegates. So, how likely is that? Well, Bernie currently has won 825 pledged delegates, and needs to win 1201 of the remaining 2087 pledged delegates to get to 2026. 1201/2087 is 57.5%. So, because the rest of the pledged delegates are allocated proportionally, Bernie is going to need to win roughly 57.5% of primary votes the rest of the way. This is something to keep in mind when watching primary results going forward. If Bernie wins the next 6 states in a row by margins of 55%, he'll actually be getting further from the nomination rather than closer to it. With, that in mind, Bernie chances are pretty much nil. Considering how Bernie has done so far, it's hard to believe he's going to start winning states by 57.5% or more. He might win a few states by more than 57.5%, and he might win the the majority of delegates the rest of the way, but nothing that's happened so far in this nomination contest suggests he can win anywhere close to 57.5% of the delegates the rest of the way. Remember, that he only won 52.8% of the delegates in his big win in Michigan ( 67/127 ) and that's a state full of union members who are still angry at the Clintons for NAFTA. Bernie also lost liberal Massachusetts, which should have been an ideal state for the more liberal candidate in the race. It would be nice if Bernie could catch Hillary, but the delegate math tells us that it isn't going to happen. *
* BTW, I wrote this on March 19, 2016. If you are reading this on the morning of March 23rd or later, the delegate math will be a little bit difference. Assuming you reading this at any time between now and the Democratic convention, you can calculate the percentage of remaining pledged delegates Bernie needs to win with the following formula.
B = pledged delegates won by Bernie.
H = pledged delegates won by Hillary.
P = percentage of remaining pledged delegates Bernie needs to win the win the nomination.
P = 100 x ( 2026 - B ) / ( 4051 - ( B + H ) )
I also want to make it clear that I'm not asking any Bernie fans to abandon their principals or stop supporting Bernie. If Bernie decides to keep running all the way until the convention, I think Bernie fans should keep supporting him the entire way. I certainly intend to vote for Bernie when the primary happens in my state. Bernie's running a positive campaign, and his presence in the campaign has been good for the Democratic party. He's pushed Hillary to the left on the issues and each competitive Democratic primary leads to more registered Democratic voters.
However, what I am asking Bernie supporters to do is vote for Hillary in November in the extremely likely event that Hillary wins the Democratic nomination. I understand that Bernie fans might find this distasteful ( I plan to hold by nose while casting my vote for Hillary in November ), but the future of our country depends on this. Once again, the "Bernie or Bust" people may not like the idea of voting for "a lesser evil" in November, but Hillary is a much lesser evil than the GOP.
I understand that Hillary is a lying sleazy politician. I understand that her positions are all over the map depending on which way the political winds are blowing. I understand that she cares more about being president than actually helping people.
However, even though she is all over the map, it's a on a part of the map which is far more palatable than the part the Republicans occupy. If you think of the American political landscape like a map of the USA, the Democrats are all within 200 miles on of the west coast while the Republicans are all within 200 miles of the east coast. In this analogy, there's nobody at all in the vast expanse between the two coasts. A "moderate" is as extinct these days a dinosaur. I know Bernie fans would greatly prefer a true liberal like Bernie with his toes dipped in the Pacific, but if Hillary is 200 miles from the west coast that's still more than 2000 miles away any Republican.
My point is that while Hillary may not be a reliably liberal Democrat, she's still a Democrat, and a liberal can be confident that President Hillary Clinton's policies will fall within the part of the political spectrum occupied by Democrats - a part of the spectrum that has no overlap with Republicans
If you' d like to see this concept expressed with a graphic, here's a video I made about this concept back in 2008. Everything I said in the video below is still true today, except that the Democrats and the Republicans are even further apart today than they were 8 years ago.
It's not hyperbole to say that the November presidential election could affect the lives of both our kids and grandkids. The next president might nominate Supreme Court justices who will serve for 30 or more years. This is not the year to throw your vote away, or not vote all all.
If the "Bernie of Bust" people can't appreciate the huge different between Hillary Clinton or any Republican, I'm not sure if anything I've said is going to make any difference. However, I'm going to close this post by making one final plea to Bernie supporters:
Bernie Sanders is a good and smart man who understands what a Republican presidency would mean for America. After Hillary wins the nomination, Bernie is going throw his support behind Hillary and ask his supporters to vote for her.
Please listen to him.
Rich
P.S. If you care about keeping the GOP out of the White House, please share this post with any Bernie Sanders supporters you know.
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