As you can see only 22% of Americans over the age of 65 support Gay Marriage, while 58% of Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 support Gay Marriage. Based on those demographic trends, I've got to believe that at most 20% of people over 80 support Gay Marriage while at least 60% of people between the ages of 14 and 17 support Gay Marriage. This doesn't bode well for socially conservative candidates when you consider that many of today's 14-17 year olds will be standing in a voting booth in 4 years while a lot today's octogenarian voters will be lying in a box in 4 years.
It's also clear that courting the white vote at the expense of the minority vote is not a good long term strategy when you consider that the majority of people being born in the USA these days are non-white.
Much to my delight, it seems like most Republicans want to adopt a near-suicidal "true Conservative" strategy for the 2016 election. However, not all of them do - and that's where the "Civil War" comes one.
One example of a Republican who can see the writing on the wall is David Frum. I was listening to him on a podcast a few days after the election, and he was arguing that the GOP needs to focus more on economic issues rather than social ones. He was joined on this podcasts by a bunch of Republicans who disagreed with him vehemently. These other Republicans ( I forget their names ) argued that most voters still agreed with the GOP message, but that Romney was simply the wrong messenger. They argued that a candidate who was comfortable talking about conservative principles could have won the election. They even went as far to argue that Republican's should have made more of an issue out of same-sex marriage ( as they did with much success in 2004 ), because when same-sex marriage has appeared on ballots in state referendums, the public has voted against it 90% of the time ( never mind that all the votes against same-sex marriage happened prior to 2012, and all the votes in favor of same-sex marriage happened in 2012 ). When Frum spoke about how the GOP was abandoning the youth vote, one of the other Republicans argued that the true Conservative message could still be appealing to young voters because Ronald Reagan overwhelmingly won voters between the ages of 23 and 29. Frum then pointed out that the 23 to 29 years olds who voted for Reagan back in 1980 are the same older people who voted for Romney in 2012 ( People between the ages of 23 and 29 in 1980 are now part of the 45-64 year-old demographic that voted for Romney 51%-47%, while today's 23-29 year-olds are part of the 18-29 year-old demographic that voted for Obama 60%-37%. ).
Ultimately, as much as the David Frum's of the world would like the Republican Party to change, I believe the reality-challenged wing of the Republican Party will win out in the 2016 Presidential primaries. At this point there are still far too many true-believer Far Right Republican voters that would rather risk losing the general election than abandon their principles. These people believe in their ideas with a religious fervor ( quite literally religious ), and that faith has made them so delusional that they many still sincerely believe they could win general elections with a pure Conservative message despite all evidence to the contrary. Due to these Far Right voters, the 2016 Republican Presidential Nominee will either be an un-electable true Conservative or a moderate who gets gravely damaged by taking Far Right positions during the primaries ( For example, when likely 2016 Presidential candidate Chris Christie was recently asked whether he believed in the Theory of Evolution or Creationism he responded by saying "That's none of your business". Chris Christie, may be many things ( and I don't like most of those things ), but he's not some Bible-thumping idiot who believes the world was created in 6 days. The fact he's afraid to say he believes in evolution tells you all you need to know about the Republican's Presidential election chances in 2016. ).
So, assuming for the moment that I'm right and the GOP is bound to lose the 2016 Presidential Election, what happens after 2016? Well, that's when things could get really interesting. That's when the Republican coalition could come apart at the seams, and the real Republican Civil War could start.
For the past 32 years or so ( From Ronald Reagan's 1980 election until now ), the Republican party has been held together by an unholy alliance between Christian Conservatives and wealthy moderate Republicans ( Thomas Franks gives a great description of the dynamics between these two groups in his fantastic and still-relevant 2004 book "What's the Matter with Kansas" ). The Christian Conservatives care primarily about social issues like abortion, gay rights, the biblical role of woman ( they should be submissive to their husbands ) and education ( They want Young Earth Creationism and "Intelligent" Design, to be taught alongside Evolution and the Big Bang Theory in schools ). Wealthy moderate Republicans don't care about these social issues at all. The wealthy Republicans simply want their taxes to be low and their businesses to be less regulated. I'm sure the vast majority of them with daughters would want their daughters to be able to get an abortion, but the abortion laws don't really concern them. They know that it's extremely unlikely that abortion will ever be made illegal in the USA ( If Roe v. Wade was overturned today, abortion rights would be left up to the individual states, and abortion would remain legal in many states. For well-off people, crossing state lines to get an abortion wouldn't be a great hardship. ), and even it is was they could use their wealth and influence to get qualified doctors to perform secret abortions for them using the most advanced equipment.
Most of these wealthy moderate Republican's probably look at these non-affluent Christian Conservatives with disdain. However, they put up with them because they need them to get what they want. If they can get these Christian Conservatives fired up and out to the polls to vote on social issues, they can get politicians elected that will give them the low taxes they want. They can get politician's elected who will be in their pockets. They can continue to get politician's elected who will stack the deck in favor of the rich.
For a long time, this has worked perfectly for the wealthy moderate Republicans. Taxes are as low as they've ever been, income inequality is as great as ever, and laws governing social policy have NOT gotten more conservative ( In fact, most have become more liberal. People can now be openly gay in the military and same-sex marriage is legal in many states. ).
However, if the Conservative Republicans nominate a true Conservative in 2016, and the Democrats take the White House again, these moderate Republicans are not going to be happy. They are not going to be happy with 12 consecutive years of Democratic rule. They are not going to with the higher taxes. They are not going to be happy with laws that help the "little guy". They are not going to be happy when their workers can assert their rights more. They are going to be angry, and they are going to blame the Christian Right yahoos they had been putting up with for 36 years. I'm not sure what actions the moderate Republicans or Christian Right will take at this point, but their divorce will be fascinating theater. It will be fascinating to see who will "get custody" of the Republican Party. The moderate Republicans will have most of the money, but the Christian Right will have most of the votes. I'm not sure who will win this battle, but when it's over, the political landscape will never be the same again.
Rich
1 comment:
I can see a real civil war after 2016 happening...
Right now, I think the GOP leadership knows that a civil war would cripple them and that weaker major parties suffer in our winner-take-all electoral system.
dlw
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