In 1965, the Jets selected Joe Namath with the first pick in the American Football League ( AFL ) draft, and in January 1969, Namath led the Jets to a their first and only Super Bowl victory by defeating the NFL's powerful Baltimore Colts.
That was as good as it got for the Jets and their fans. Since joining the NFL as part of the 1970 NFL/AFL merger, the Jets have never managed to draft a great quarterback. Sure, they've drafted a couple of pretty good quarterback over the years ( Ken O'Brien was among the the NFL's passing leaders for a few years before his tendency to take sacks ( and the concussions that followed ) curtailed his career, and I'm still convinced Chad Pennington could have taken the Jets's to the promised land if he wan't getting injured every other year ( Seriously, if Pennington had stayed healthy, he would have still been the Jets quarterback in 2009 and 2010, and is there any doubt that upgrading from Mark Sanchez to Chad Pennington could have put either the 2009 or 2010 Jets teams ( who both lost in the AFC championship game ) over the top? )), but they've never drafted a great Hall-of-Fame-caliber quarterback.
There was a time when a team could win a Superbowl without a great quarterback ( a lot of people consider the 1985 Bears to be the best football team of all time, and nobody's getting a bust ready for Jim McMahon in Canton ), but because all the recent rules changes have made passing a much more important part of the game ( Ex: You can't hit a quarterback as late as you could in the past; you can't even touch a quarterback at all from the knees down or above the shoulders; you can't hit a receiver hard over the middle; you can't hit a receiver with your helmet; you can't hit a receiver on his helmet; you can't hit a "defenseless receiver" if the ref doesn't think the receiver had enough time to brace for your hit ) it is extremely difficult to win a Super Bowl unless you have a great quarterback.
Since drafting Mark Sanchez with their first pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Jets have drafted a defensive player with their first draft pick for the last 8 years in a row. It's quite possible that the Jets' decisions to draft the "best player available" with their first pick over the last 8 years was the smartest football move to make, but I would have preferred if they had taken the "best quarterback available" a few times with those first picks. In fact I sometimes wonder if the Jets should just take a quarterback with their first draft pick every year until they luck into a great one. After all, it is not as if the Jets have always has the greatest luck drafting who they think is the "best player" available with their first draft pick.
Three Notes on the video above:
1) Freeman McNeil should not have been including in that montage. He was was a really good player who led the league in rushing in 1982 and led the Jets to the AFC Championship Game that season ( It wasn't his fault that Don Shula intentionally didn't put the tarp down when it rained before the AFC Championship game, effectively shutting down the running game and leading to 5 Richard Todd interceptions ).
2) The video doesn't mention that the Jets wasted their first draft pick on a *kicker* in the 2005 Draft ( Mike Nugent )
3) Since that video was posted in 2006, the Jets have had the following NFL Draft busts:
2008: Vernon Gholston
2009: Mark Sanchez
2010: Kyle Wilson ( Not a giant bust at the 29th overall pick, but still worse than average for a first round pick ).
2012: Quinton Coples
2013: Dee Milliner
2014: Calvin Pryor ( It may be early in his career, but considering the Jets just drafted safeties with the first 2 picks of the 2017 draft, I think it is safe to say that the Jets have given up on him ).
So, I've decided to check who the Jets could had drafted if they had decided to pick the best available quarterback every year with their first draft pick instead of the player they actually picked. Note, that when I say "best available quarterback", I mean best available quarterback based on the consensus of most NFL evaluators at the time. This means that I can't switch the Jets year 2000 draft pick to Tom Brady ( even the Patriots didn't think he was worth drafting until the 6th round ). Also, if the Jets happened to draft a quarterback first in a given year, I'm not going to switch their pick. Thus, the Jets would still draft Mark Sanchez in 2009 based on my "best quarterback available" rules and they would still draft Ken O'Brien over Dan Marion in 1983. The "best quarterback available" will be defined as the next quarterback selected in the draft after the Jets made their first pick ( assuming the Jets did not select a QB with their first pick ). As I write this, I have no idea what QBs were potentially available for the Jets to pick using this "best QB available" system - we're going to find out the answer together. Also, I realize that the Jets would have drafted at different positions in most of the drafts over the years if they were using the "best QB available strategy" each year ( because drafting different players than they had drafted originally would have resulted in different won/loss records than they'd had originally ), and I realize that drafting a QB every year would not have been practical ( because you can only have 3 QBs on your team at a time and only one QB can get significant playing time in any given year ), but let's just try to have fun with this. I'm going to start this exercise with the 1977 NFL draft - the first draft after Joe Namath left the team. I'll also going to indicate if the QB had a better or worse career than the player the Jets picked ( by "career", I mean entire career, not just their career with the Jets). I'll only indicate if a given player was better or worse than another player if one player had a clearly better career than the other player. If both players had a roughly equal career, I'm not going to try and decide who was better.
( BTW, sorry for how messy the columns are below. I tried to keep the columns below in a neat line, but Blogger doesn't seem to support tabbing, and columns that seem to line up in edit mode don't line up after you post to the blog. )
( BTW, sorry for how messy the columns are below. I tried to keep the columns below in a neat line, but Blogger doesn't seem to support tabbing, and columns that seem to line up in edit mode don't line up after you post to the blog. )
Year Real Pick Best QB Available Pick QB pick BETTER/WORSE/same
------ ------------ --------------------------- --------------------------------------
1977 Marvin Powell Steve Pisarkiewicz WORSE
1978 Chris Ward Doug Williams BETTER
1979 Marty Lyons Steve Fuller WORSE
1980 Johnny "Lam" Jones Marc Wilson same
1981 Freeman McNeil Rich Campbell WORSE
1982 Bob Crable Oliver Luck WORSE
1983 Ken O'Brien Ken O'Brien same
1984 Russel Carter Boomer Esiason BETTER
1985 Al Toon Randall Cunningham BETTER (Note 1)
1986 Mike Haight Jack Trudeau same
1987 Roger Vick Jim Harbaugh BETTER
1988 Dave Cadigan Tom Tupa BETTER (Note 2)
1989 Jeff Lagerman Mike Elkins WORSE
1990 Blair Thomas Andre Ware WORSE (Note 3)
1991 Browning Nagel Browning Nagel same
1992 Johnny Mitchell Tommy Maddox same (Note 4)
1993 Marvin Jones Billy Joe Hobert WORSE
1994 Aaron Glenn Perry Klein WORSE
1995 Kyle Brady Todd Collins WORSE (Note 5)
1996 Keyshawn Johnson Tony Banks WORSE
1997 James Farrior Jim Druckenmiller WORSE
1998 Dorian Boose Charlie Batch BETTER
1999 Randy Thomas Brock Huard WORSE
2000 Shaun Ellis Chad Pennington got both (Note 6)
2001 Santana Moss Drew Brees BETTER
2002 Bryan Thomas Patrick Ramsey WORSE
2003 Dewayne Robertson Byron Leftwich same (Note 7)
2004 Jonathan Vilma J. P. Losman WORSE
2005 Mike Nugent Charlie Frye WORSE (Note 8)
2006 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Matt Leinart WORSE
2007 Darrelle Revis Brady Quinn WORSE
2008 Vernon Gholston Joe Flacco BETTER
2009 Mark Sanchez Mark Sanchez same (Note 9)
2010 Kyle Wilson Jimmy Clausen meh
2011 Muhammad Wilkerson Andy Dalton WORSE (Note 10)
2012 Quinton Coples Brandon Weedon same
2013 Dee Milliner EJ Manuel BETTER (Note 11)
2014 Calvin Pyror Johnny Manziel WORSE
2015 Leonard Williams Garret Grayson WORSE
2016 Darron Lee Paxton Lynch Too early to tell
2017 Jamal Adams Patrick Mahomes II Too early to tell
Note 1: Al Toon was one of my favorite Jets ever but he's not better than Randall Cunningham.
Note 2: Tom Tupa was drafted as a QB and started his career playing QB, but eventually became a very good punter. If you don't think Tom Tupa is a legit choice, it is worth noting that the next QB selected in that draft ( Chris Chandler ) also had a better career than Dave Cadigan.
Note 3: This may be hard to believe, but as big a bust as Blair Thomas was, Andre Ware was clearly a worse player. Thomas had twice as many career rushing yards as Ware had career passing yards.
Note 4: If you put a gun to my head I'd say Maddox's two years as a mediocre starting QB in Pittsburgh trumps anything Mitchell did in his five years in the league, but Mitchell did have more NFL starts than Maddox, and if you think about it, both of them sucked.
Note 5: Kyle Brady was a massive disappointment. Jets fans will always be upset that the Jets drafted Kyle Brady instead of Warren Sapp that year. That said, Kyle Brady caught more touchdown passes in his career than Todd Collins threw in his career.
Note 6: In this year, the first QB picked after Shaun Ellis was Chad Pennington, who was picked by the Jets. Considering that the Jets wound up getting both ( who they believed to be ) the best player available and the best QB available, it doesn't make sense to do a comparison in this case.
Note 7: Considering that Robertson was the 4th overall pick and Leftwich was the 7th overall pick they both had disappointing careers. Robertson started more games, but Leftwhich stayed in the league longer. Leftwich showed some promise early in his career with Jacksonville and even won a playoff game, but he wound up losing his job to the immortal David Garrard.
Note 8: I still think Mike Nugent was one of the worse picks the Jets ever made, but Charlie Frye was a terrible QB who only lasted a few years in the league while Nugent is still placekicking in the NFL.
Note 9: Even though I know it's impossible for Mark Sanchez to be worse than Mark Sanchez, I still had a hard time not putting the word "WORSE" next to Mark Sanchez's name.
Note 10: Some might dispute my assertion that Dalton is worse than Wilkerson, because ( surprisingly ) Wilkerson has been selected for only one Pro Bowl team and Dalton has ( shockingly ) been selected for three Pro Bowl teams ( I'm sure it's only because top QB's like Manning or Brady decided not to play in the Pro Bowl the years Dalton made the Pro Bowl team ( or couldn't because they were playing in the Super Bowl ) ), but nobody who's ever watched them both play would tell you that Dalton is a better player than Wilkerson.
Note 11: EJ Manuel is a pretty crappy QB, but at least he is still in the league.
In the table above "WORSE" appears 20 times and "BETTER"appears only 9 times. Thus, it seems that in any given year, it probably does make sense to pick the best available player rather than the best available quarterback. That result doesn't really surprise me. However, in a quarterback-driven league where elite quarterback routinely have career of about 15 years, I'm still not sure that picking the best player available each year is the best strategy.
Just look at all the notable QBs that the Jets could have taken over the last 40 years.
Doug Williams ( Not a great career, but he was the 1987 Super Bowl MVP )
Boomer Esiason ( 4 Pro Bowls, 1 First Team All-Pro ( 1988 ), and 1988 MVP )
Randall Cunningham ( 4 Pro Bowls, 1 First Team All-Pro ( 1998 ), and 1990 MVP )
Drew Brees ( 10 Pro Bowls, 1 First Team All-Pro ( 2006 ), 2009 Super Bowl MVP. Brees once held the NFL single season passing record, and he has a fairly good chance of passing Peyton Manning for the all-time lead in both touchdowns and passing yards. )
Joe Flacco ( I don't think he'll ever be thought of as a great quarterback, but he did play great in the 2012 post-season and was the 2012 Super Bowl MVP ).
Now, it's not realistic to think the the Jets could have had all these quarterbacks. Esiason and Cunningham entered the draft in consecutive years, and a team with a young quarterback on the roster usually wouldn't draft a new young quarterback until they'd given up on the young quarterback they already have. If they Jets were drafting QBs every year, and giving up on those quarterbacks after one year if they didn't show signs of greatness, they might not have found out that some of these great quarterbacks were destined for greatness. Esiason didn't play great until his second season, and Cunningham didn't show signs of greatness until his 3rd season. Brees didn't have a good year until his 4th season, and his original team was so unimpressed with him that they let him leave for the Saints after his 5th season.
So, drafting a quarterback with their first draft pick every year isn't a realistic strategy for the Jets, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't be taking quarterbacks with their first pick more often. Over the last 41 drafts from 1977 to 2017, the Jets have only used their first pick on a quarterback 3 times. If you are wondering why the Jets haven't drafted a great quarterback in the last 40 years, that's why. For years, the New York Lottery ( Lotto ) used the slogan "You've gotta be in it to win it.". Well, if the Jets ever want to win the NFL's annual quarterback lottery, they've got to be "in it" more often than 3 times in 41 years.
Hey, you never know.
Rich
------ ------------ --------------------------- --------------------------------------
1977 Marvin Powell Steve Pisarkiewicz WORSE
1978 Chris Ward Doug Williams BETTER
1979 Marty Lyons Steve Fuller WORSE
1980 Johnny "Lam" Jones Marc Wilson same
1981 Freeman McNeil Rich Campbell WORSE
1982 Bob Crable Oliver Luck WORSE
1983 Ken O'Brien Ken O'Brien same
1984 Russel Carter Boomer Esiason BETTER
1985 Al Toon Randall Cunningham BETTER (Note 1)
1986 Mike Haight Jack Trudeau same
1987 Roger Vick Jim Harbaugh BETTER
1988 Dave Cadigan Tom Tupa BETTER (Note 2)
1989 Jeff Lagerman Mike Elkins WORSE
1990 Blair Thomas Andre Ware WORSE (Note 3)
1991 Browning Nagel Browning Nagel same
1992 Johnny Mitchell Tommy Maddox same (Note 4)
1993 Marvin Jones Billy Joe Hobert WORSE
1994 Aaron Glenn Perry Klein WORSE
1995 Kyle Brady Todd Collins WORSE (Note 5)
1996 Keyshawn Johnson Tony Banks WORSE
1997 James Farrior Jim Druckenmiller WORSE
1998 Dorian Boose Charlie Batch BETTER
1999 Randy Thomas Brock Huard WORSE
2000 Shaun Ellis Chad Pennington got both (Note 6)
2001 Santana Moss Drew Brees BETTER
2002 Bryan Thomas Patrick Ramsey WORSE
2003 Dewayne Robertson Byron Leftwich same (Note 7)
2004 Jonathan Vilma J. P. Losman WORSE
2005 Mike Nugent Charlie Frye WORSE (Note 8)
2006 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Matt Leinart WORSE
2007 Darrelle Revis Brady Quinn WORSE
2008 Vernon Gholston Joe Flacco BETTER
2009 Mark Sanchez Mark Sanchez same (Note 9)
2010 Kyle Wilson Jimmy Clausen meh
2011 Muhammad Wilkerson Andy Dalton WORSE (Note 10)
2012 Quinton Coples Brandon Weedon same
2013 Dee Milliner EJ Manuel BETTER (Note 11)
2014 Calvin Pyror Johnny Manziel WORSE
2015 Leonard Williams Garret Grayson WORSE
2016 Darron Lee Paxton Lynch Too early to tell
2017 Jamal Adams Patrick Mahomes II Too early to tell
Note 1: Al Toon was one of my favorite Jets ever but he's not better than Randall Cunningham.
Note 2: Tom Tupa was drafted as a QB and started his career playing QB, but eventually became a very good punter. If you don't think Tom Tupa is a legit choice, it is worth noting that the next QB selected in that draft ( Chris Chandler ) also had a better career than Dave Cadigan.
Note 3: This may be hard to believe, but as big a bust as Blair Thomas was, Andre Ware was clearly a worse player. Thomas had twice as many career rushing yards as Ware had career passing yards.
Note 4: If you put a gun to my head I'd say Maddox's two years as a mediocre starting QB in Pittsburgh trumps anything Mitchell did in his five years in the league, but Mitchell did have more NFL starts than Maddox, and if you think about it, both of them sucked.
Note 5: Kyle Brady was a massive disappointment. Jets fans will always be upset that the Jets drafted Kyle Brady instead of Warren Sapp that year. That said, Kyle Brady caught more touchdown passes in his career than Todd Collins threw in his career.
Note 6: In this year, the first QB picked after Shaun Ellis was Chad Pennington, who was picked by the Jets. Considering that the Jets wound up getting both ( who they believed to be ) the best player available and the best QB available, it doesn't make sense to do a comparison in this case.
Note 7: Considering that Robertson was the 4th overall pick and Leftwich was the 7th overall pick they both had disappointing careers. Robertson started more games, but Leftwhich stayed in the league longer. Leftwich showed some promise early in his career with Jacksonville and even won a playoff game, but he wound up losing his job to the immortal David Garrard.
Note 8: I still think Mike Nugent was one of the worse picks the Jets ever made, but Charlie Frye was a terrible QB who only lasted a few years in the league while Nugent is still placekicking in the NFL.
Note 9: Even though I know it's impossible for Mark Sanchez to be worse than Mark Sanchez, I still had a hard time not putting the word "WORSE" next to Mark Sanchez's name.
Note 10: Some might dispute my assertion that Dalton is worse than Wilkerson, because ( surprisingly ) Wilkerson has been selected for only one Pro Bowl team and Dalton has ( shockingly ) been selected for three Pro Bowl teams ( I'm sure it's only because top QB's like Manning or Brady decided not to play in the Pro Bowl the years Dalton made the Pro Bowl team ( or couldn't because they were playing in the Super Bowl ) ), but nobody who's ever watched them both play would tell you that Dalton is a better player than Wilkerson.
Note 11: EJ Manuel is a pretty crappy QB, but at least he is still in the league.
In the table above "WORSE" appears 20 times and "BETTER"appears only 9 times. Thus, it seems that in any given year, it probably does make sense to pick the best available player rather than the best available quarterback. That result doesn't really surprise me. However, in a quarterback-driven league where elite quarterback routinely have career of about 15 years, I'm still not sure that picking the best player available each year is the best strategy.
Just look at all the notable QBs that the Jets could have taken over the last 40 years.
Doug Williams ( Not a great career, but he was the 1987 Super Bowl MVP )
Boomer Esiason ( 4 Pro Bowls, 1 First Team All-Pro ( 1988 ), and 1988 MVP )
Randall Cunningham ( 4 Pro Bowls, 1 First Team All-Pro ( 1998 ), and 1990 MVP )
Drew Brees ( 10 Pro Bowls, 1 First Team All-Pro ( 2006 ), 2009 Super Bowl MVP. Brees once held the NFL single season passing record, and he has a fairly good chance of passing Peyton Manning for the all-time lead in both touchdowns and passing yards. )
Joe Flacco ( I don't think he'll ever be thought of as a great quarterback, but he did play great in the 2012 post-season and was the 2012 Super Bowl MVP ).
Now, it's not realistic to think the the Jets could have had all these quarterbacks. Esiason and Cunningham entered the draft in consecutive years, and a team with a young quarterback on the roster usually wouldn't draft a new young quarterback until they'd given up on the young quarterback they already have. If they Jets were drafting QBs every year, and giving up on those quarterbacks after one year if they didn't show signs of greatness, they might not have found out that some of these great quarterbacks were destined for greatness. Esiason didn't play great until his second season, and Cunningham didn't show signs of greatness until his 3rd season. Brees didn't have a good year until his 4th season, and his original team was so unimpressed with him that they let him leave for the Saints after his 5th season.
So, drafting a quarterback with their first draft pick every year isn't a realistic strategy for the Jets, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't be taking quarterbacks with their first pick more often. Over the last 41 drafts from 1977 to 2017, the Jets have only used their first pick on a quarterback 3 times. If you are wondering why the Jets haven't drafted a great quarterback in the last 40 years, that's why. For years, the New York Lottery ( Lotto ) used the slogan "You've gotta be in it to win it.". Well, if the Jets ever want to win the NFL's annual quarterback lottery, they've got to be "in it" more often than 3 times in 41 years.
Hey, you never know.
Rich
