Monday, May 30, 2016

The Mets Championship Belt

For this post, I'm borrowing an idea from Bill Simmons.  He's written several column about "championship belts" in various disciplines, my favorite of which was The Action Hero Championship Belt.  I've decided to apply this idea to baseball, specifically the New York Mets.  Here are the rules  ...
1) The "championship belt" holder for a given team is generally the best player on a team at given time.  However ...

2) A great player doesn't have to relinquish the belt because of just one bad season.  For example, here are Mike Schmidt's home run totals with the Phillies from 1974 to 1987.  The numbers in blue indicate years he led the league in homers.

1974  36
1975  38
1976  38
1977  38
1978  21
1979  45
1980  48
1981  31 ( strike-shortened 102 game season - on pace for 49 over full season )
1982  35
1983  40
1984  36
1985  33
1986  37
1987  35

Schmidt had an off-year in 1978, but he did not lose the Phillies Championship Belt.

3) A great player could even retain the belt for several consecutive bad seasons at the end of his career depending on ...
- how great the player was
- how great the typical belt-holder is for the player's franchise
- whether or not another great player is on the horizon as the older great player declines.

4) The "championship belt" title could be vacant for a period of time if the team does not have a great player during that period of time.  Whether or not a player can be considered a "great" player for the team is tied to the history of the franchise.  It's a lot easier to be a "great" belt-worthy Marlin than a "great" Yankee.

5) The belt can be awarded retroactively.  For example, when Mike Schmidt had his bad year in 1978, he would not have been stripped of the belt at the time.  However, let's say the Phillies best player in 1978 had been a Willie Mays caliber player who wound up being  better than Mike Schmidt for the rest of his career.  Well, in that case, this hypothetical "Willie Mays" of the Phillies would retroactively be awarded the 1978 Phillies Championship Belt years after 1978.

In other to further illustrate these principals, I'm going to list the holders of the Yankees Championship belt from 1920 until the present.

Babe Ruth : 1920 - 1934

There's no doubt Gehrig was more valuable than Babe Ruth in 1933 and 1934, and Gehrig was clearly not a flash-in-the-pan who was unworthy of the Yankees belt.  However, Babe Ruth is Babe Ruth.  Babe Ruth was going the be the Yankees belt holder as long as he wore pinstripes.

Lou Gehrig : 1934 - 1938

By 1938, Lou Gehrig was already feeling the effect of the ALS that would end his life 3 years later.  Joe DiMaggio was certainly better in 1938 than Gehrig, but if the Yankees belt has been a real thing, nobody was taking it away from Gehrig until he walked off the field 8 games into the 1939 season.

Joe DiMaggio : 1939 - 1951
Yogi Berra was a great player and great Yankee.  Yogi was better than DiMaggio in 1950 and 1951 ( when Yogi won his first MVP award ), but much like Ruth, DiMaggio was iconic.  Ernest Hemingway didn't write about "the great Berra".  Nobody wrote songs about "Joltin' Yogi Berra".  DiMaggio relinquished the Yankees belt when he walked out of the Yankees clubhouse for the last time.

Mickey Mantle : 1952 - 1968

Sorry, Yogi.  You would have been a belt-holder for at least a decade for almost any other team, but these are the Yankees we're talking about.  Berra did win the MVP in 1954 and 1955, but Mantle is up there on the Yankees Mount Rushmore with Ruth/Gehrig/DiMaggio, and actually had far superior advanced stats than Berra in 1954 and 1955.   While it's clear Mantle was washed-up from 1965 to 1968, there wasn't actually any Yankees ready to seize the belt in the those years.  Mantle was so well-respected at the end of his career that 1968 MVP Denny McLain gave Mantle a going-away gift by  grooving a gopher ball to Mantle  10 days before Mantle's career ended.

1969 : Vacant

After 49 seasons of Ruth/Gerhrig/DiMaggio/Mantle as the standard bearers of the Yankees, nobody on the sub-500 1969 team was worthy to wear the Yankees'belt.

Thurman Munson : 1970 - 1976

Roy White was actually the Yankees best player in 1970, but 1970 was also the Rookie of the Year campaign for a player who would lead the Yankees to their first pennant in 12 years during his MVP season of 1976.  There's no doubt Thurman was the heart and soul of those 1970's Yankees until his tragic death in 1979.  One could argue that the belt should have belonged to Thurman until he died, but I think the belt changed hands when a force of nature arrived in the Bronx in 1977.

Reggie Jackson : 1977 - 1981

I've seen a lot of impressive things in my 40+ years of watching baseball, buy it's hard to top what Reggie did in his last 3 at bats of the 1977 World Series.  Reggie hit first-pitch home runs off of three different pitchers, the last of which was a mammoth shot into the black seats beyond the center field fence at Yankees Stadium.



Soon after Reggie arrived in New York, he was quoted as saying ...
"This team, it all flows from me. I’m the straw that stirs the drink. Maybe I should say me and Munson, but he can only stir it bad.” *
* Reggie now denies he ever said that.

Considering his alleged insult of Munson, lots of Yankees fans ( and I'm sure the players ) hesitated to accept Reggie as one of their own, but nobody could deny he was king of the Yankees hill after that night in October.

Back 1973 when Reggie was on his way to winning the MVP ( and the 2nd of 3 straight World Series titles ) with the A's, he said ...

"If I was playing in New York, they'd name a candy bar after me."
Of course, Reggie turned out to be right ...



Not gonna lie - it was a pretty good candy bar.  I had a bunch of them in my day.

BTW, to follow up on his three home runs to end his 1977 World Series performance, he homered in his first Yankees Stadium at bat in 1978.  The fans showered the field with Reggie bars.

1982 - 1983 : Vacant

Dave Winfield was a great player, a worthy Hall-of-Famer, and probably the best all-around player for the Yankees in the 80's.  However, be it fair or not, his 1-22 performance in the 1981 World Series ( and George Steinbrenner's "Mr. May" quote ) will always be one of the first things people think about when they think of Dave Windfield's Yankees career.

Don Mattingly : 1984 - 1995

Donnie Baseball's last great season was in 1987.  After that, his chronic back problems limited him to being a good player rather than a great player.  While other Yankees certainly had better seasons than Mattingly from 1988 to 1995, there is no doubt that the Yankees were Mattingly's team up to and including his fine performance in the 1995 playoffs ( .417 batting average and a 1.148 OPS over 5 games ).

Derek Jeter : 1996 - 2014

Derek wasn't always the best or most valuable Yankee during his career ( especially during the last few years of his career ), and it could be argued that closer Mariano Rivera was the biggest reason why the Yankees won 5 World Series ( and 7 AL pennants ) during the Jeter years ( I'd be one to make that argument ), but Jeter was the easily the most iconic Yankee since Mantle and probably the most revered Yankee since Dimaggio.  I'll always contend that he wasn't as good as Yankees fans think he is ( He's certainly a worthy first ballot Hall-of-Famer, but Yankees fans treated him like he was the best player in baseball, which he never was at any point during his career. ), but in Yankees circles, he's a legend whose shoes will be extremely difficult to fill.

2015 - 2016 : Vacant

Nobody has filled Jeter's shoes yet, and nobody will until the Yankees start winning pennants again.

Ok, so with that ( longer than anticipated ) preliminary complete, let's get to the Mets.

1962 - 1966 : Vacant

If you know anything about the Mets' history, there is no need for any explanation.

Tom Seaver: 1967 to June 15, 1997

Mets fans probably don't need of summary of Tom Seaver's resume to agree with this, but I'm going to list a few key points anyway.

1967 Rookie of the Year

1969 : Went 25 -7 with a 2.21 ERA, won the Cy Young Award, and most importantly, led the Miracle Mets to their first World Series title ( The Mets has finished in 9th or 10th place every season prior to 1969 )

April 22, 1970 : Struck out the last 10 batters of a game to finish a game with 19 strikeouts.  No Major League pitcher before or since has struck out 10 batters in a row.  Who knows how many more he could have struck out in a row if the game has not ended?

1973: Wins his second Cy Young Award and and leads the Mets to their 2nd National League Championship.

1975: Wins his 3rd Cy Young Award.  At the time, no pitcher has won more than 3 Cy Young Awards.

1976 : Seaver struck out 235 batters that season, marking the 9th consecutive season he'd struck out 200 or more batters.  No pitcher before or since has matched such a streak.  Not Nolan Ryan, not Randy Johnson, not Walter Johnson, not Bob Feller, not Pedro Martinez, not anyone.  ( BTW, in case you are wondering.  If the 1981 strike has not happened and Ryan has struck out 200 or more in 1981, his best streak still would have only been 7 years ( from 1976 to 1982 ).  Also, Randy Johnson did manage to keep his 200-strikeout season streak going by striking out 204 in the strike-shortened 1994 season ( and 294 in the slightly shortened  1995 season ), but he never stuck out 200 or more for 9 straight season because he struck out less than 200 in injury-plagued 1996 and 2003 seasons.  Also note that Pedro Martinez could have had 9 straight 200 strikeout seasons if 1994 and 1995 has been full seasons, but his 174 K's in 144 teams games in 1995 is only on a pace for 195 strikeouts in a 162-game season. )

Seaver was, as his nickname spelled out was "The Franchise".  The first words of his Hall of Fame plaque summed up his impact perfectly.

"Franchise power pitcher who transformed Mets from lovable losers into formidable foes."

 I was born in January 1970 into a family of Mets fans still basking of the glow of the Mets World Series triumph in October 1969.  Seaver was almost like a patron saint in my family.  Family members used to tell me I looked like Seaver in hushed tones, as if it connoted something divine.  We were all devastated when the Mets traded Seaver on the night of June 15, 1977.  After that, nothing would be the same for a long time.

June 15, 1977 - June 15, 1983 : Vacant

It was a long six years in the wilderness.  The Mets finished in last or next to last every year from 1977 to 1983.  However, things started to change when the Mets made the best trade in team history on June 15, 1983.

Keith Hernandez : June 15, 1983 - 1984

With apologies to Mike Piazza,  Donn Clendenon, Gary Carter, Syndergaard/d'Arnaud, and Yoenis Cespedes, no trade has had a greater positive impact on the Mets than the deal that sent Keith Hernandez from the Cardinals to the Mets on June 15, 1983.

Much like Seaver did in the late 60's, Hernandez was the leading force behind the Mets transforming from perennial losers into a championship team.  He led the Mets to a 90-win 2nd place finish in 1984 and finished second in the MVP voting.  He was great in 1985 and 1986 as well, but he lost the belt in 1985, becasue Dwight Gooden's 1985 season was the best season a pitcher has ever had since baseball started to use a lively ball with a cork center in 1920 ( prior to 1920, baseball did not have cork centers and pitchers dominated the game. ).

Dwight Gooden : 1985 - 1986

Gooden had a sub-par year in 1986 ( 17 - 6 /  2.84 ERA / 200 Ks ) by his 1985 standards ( 24 - 4 / 1.53 ERA / 268 Ks ), but the Mets won the World Series in 1986, so the glow of his 1985 season was still shining through  his 1986 season.  However, when checked in drug rehab just before the 1987 season, that glow was gone forever.

Darryl Strawberry : 1987 - 1990

Darryl from 1987 - 1990 :

1987 : 39 HR, 104 RBI
1988 : 39 HR, 101 RBI
1989 : 29 HR, 77 RBI ( only played 134 games that year )
1990 : 37 HR, 108 RBI

He could have been a lot greater if not for the booze and coke, but he was pretty damn good anyway.  In 1988 he led the NL in OPS and OPS+.

David Cone : 1991 - August 27, 1992

After Strawberry signed as a free agent with the Dodgers after the 1990 season, both the Mets and Darryl went into a tailspin ( Darryl had a pretty good season in 1991, but he was never a star after that ).  The only bright spot on the Mets in the years immediately following Darryl's departure was David Cone.  He led the National Leauge in strikeouts in 1991 ( following up a 1990 season when he led the league in strikeouts ) and was leading the league in strikeouts in 1992 when the Mets traded him.  He also had a 19-strikeout game in 1991.

Now that I think of it, it's a bit unfair of me to say the Cone was the only bright spot after Darryl left considering that Howard Johnson led the National League in homers and RBIs in 1991 ( while also stealing 30 bases to record his 3rd 30-homer/30-steal season ).  However,  as important as Hojo was to the Mets 1986 title team, the guy could never manage to string 2 good seasons together.

 August 27, 1992 - 1995 : Vacant

The less that can be said about the awful 1993 season and the false promise of Generation K, the better.

Todd Hundely : 1996

Yeah, I know.  After documenting Yankees belt holders like Ruth, Gerhig, DiMaggio, and Mantle earlier in this post, it's pretty pathetic that Todd Hundely could be considered worthy of the Mets belt, but as the Mets stumbled to their 6-straight post-Strawberry losing season in 1996, Todd Hundely's pursuit of the single season home run record for catchers was a ray of hope. Hundley's 41 home runs in 1996 was a single-season record for catchers at the time, and is still tied for the best single-season home run total for a Met.

Rick Reed : 1997 - May 22, 1998

OK, once again - the fact that former MLB scab Rick Reed is worthy of the Mets belt while a Yankees Hall-of-Fame hurler like Whitey Ford didn't come close to claiming a Yankees belt is pretty sad, but I was there in 1997, and nothing got me more excited about the 1997 Mets than Rick Reed.  The Mets finally broke their streak of 6 straight losing seasons and the pitching of Rick Reed was the biggest reason why.  The 1997 season laid the groundwork for strong Mets teams of the late 90's and early 2000s.  Reed followed up his strong 1997 season with an All-Star berth in 1998, but the belt changed hands in 1998 because a certain Hall-of-Fame catcher joined the team.

Mike Piazza : May 22, 1998 - June 21, 2004

From the time he joined the team in 1998 until 2002 ( his last great year ), Piazza had the greatest 5-year run of excellence a Mets every-day player has ever had.   His performance faded each year after that but he held on the belt for a while after that until the next great Met came on the scene.

David Wright : May 21, 2004 - 2015 

When all is said and done, David Wright is going to hold nearly every Mets career batting record.  That plus 2 gold glove awards makes him the clear choice as the all-time greatest every-day player for the Mets.  Here are his Fangraphs WAR numbers from 2004 - 2008.

2004  2.3 ( half a season )
2005  5.8
2006  4.7
2007  8.4  ( Won Gold Glove Award )
2008  7.0  ( Won Gold Glove Award  )

  For those who are not familiar with the scale for WAR, a WAR of 5 makes you an All Star, a WAR of 7 or greater makes you an MVP candidate and a WAR of 10 or greater makes you Mike Trout.

Wright's belt run almost ended with his subpar 2009 - 2011, but he was so good in 2012 and 2013, that I think it's fair to say that he deserved to keep the belt at least until the end of 2013.

Year   WAR
2012   7.5
2013   6.1 ( in just 112 games )

After that injuries kept him from contributing much in 2014 and 2015.  However, because Wright managed to return from spinal stenosis in late 2015 and helped contribute to the Mets run to the NL Championship, I think it's fair to let him keep the belt through 2015.

2016 : ???

However, I think it's clear now that Wright will never again return to his 2013 level.  He usually misses at least 2 games a week due to the spinal stenosis, and as of this writing he seems ready to head to the 15-day DL.  2004 - 2015 was a great run, but I think David Wright's run as the Mets belt-holder is over.

So, if David Wright is no longer the Mets belt-holder who is?

Well, to be honest, a month ago I was sure it was Michael Conforto.  Conforto was actually my inspiration for writing this post.   When Conforto got his 3rd hit in an April 30 game to raise his batting average to .370, I decided the the torch was being passed from Wright to Conforto, and came up with the idea of writing about Mets championship belts.

Sadly, over the last month, Conforto has struggled badly.  He's hit .177 in May and his average has dropped to .268.  Worse yet , he's only managed to get 4 hits ( all singles ) in 33 at-bats against lefties this year.  I still think Conforto is going to hit close to .300 with 20+ homers this year and will someday win a batting title, but I'm not convinced he's ready to take the belt this year ( thought he might be given the 2016 belt retroactively in 2020 or so if he turns into the the great player I hope he'll be ).

Right now, the Mets best player is Yoenis Cespedes, but it's hard to give him the belt knowing that he'll probably opt out of his contract and leave as a free agent after this season.  However, if he winds up hitting 45+ homers and 135+ RBI and leads the Mets to a World Series title, I'm giving the 2016 belt to Cespedes even if he leaves.

In any case, only time will tell, and it will be fun spending my time watching the Mets in the years to come.

Rich